Atmospheric science: Amplification of surface temperature trends and variability in the tropical atmosphere

B. D. Santer; T. M.L. Wigley; C. Mears; F. J. Wentz; S. A. Klein; D. J. Seidel; K. E. Taylor; P. W. Thorne; M. F. Wehner; P. J. Gleckler; J. S. Boyle; W. D. Collins; K. W. Dixon; C. Doutriaux; M. Free; Q. Fu; J. E. Hansen; C. S. Jones; R. Ruedy; T. R. Karl; J. R. Lanzante; C. A. Meehl; V. Ramaswamy; G. Russell; G. A. Schmidt

doi:10.1126/science.1114867

Atmospheric science: Amplification of surface temperature trends and variability in the tropical atmosphere

B. D. Santer, T. M.L. Wigley, C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, S. A. Klein, D. J. Seidel, K. E. Taylor, P. W. Thorne, M. F. Wehner, P. J. Gleckler, J. S. Boyle, W. D. Collins, K. W. Dixon, C. Doutriaux, M. Free, Q. Fu, J. E. Hansen, C. S. Jones, R. Ruedy, T. R. KarlJ. R. Lanzante, C. A. Meehl, V. Ramaswamy, G. Russell, G. A. Schmidt

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Abstract

The month-to-month variability of tropical temperatures is larger in the troposphere than at Earth's surface. This amplification behavior is similar in a range of observations and climate model simulations and is consistent with basic theory. On multidecadal time scales, tropospheric amplification of surface warming is a robust feature of model simulations, but it occurs in only one observational data set. Other observations show weak, or even negative, amplification. These results suggest either that different physical mechanisms control amplification processes on monthly and decadal time scales, and models fail to capture such behavior; or (more plausibly) that residual errors in several observational data sets used here affect their representation of long-term trends.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	1551-1556
Number of pages	6
Journal	Science
Volume	309
Issue number	5740
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1114867
State	Published - Sep 2 2005
Externally published	Yes

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Santer, B. D., Wigley, T. M. L., Mears, C., Wentz, F. J., Klein, S. A., Seidel, D. J., Taylor, K. E., Thorne, P. W., Wehner, M. F., Gleckler, P. J., Boyle, J. S., Collins, W. D., Dixon, K. W., Doutriaux, C., Free, M., Fu, Q., Hansen, J. E., Jones, C. S., Ruedy, R., ... Schmidt, G. A. (2005). Atmospheric science: Amplification of surface temperature trends and variability in the tropical atmosphere. Science, 309(5740), 1551-1556. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1114867

@article{78fc58f0d82b4a8889d092810b8554aa,

title = "Atmospheric science: Amplification of surface temperature trends and variability in the tropical atmosphere",

abstract = "The month-to-month variability of tropical temperatures is larger in the troposphere than at Earth's surface. This amplification behavior is similar in a range of observations and climate model simulations and is consistent with basic theory. On multidecadal time scales, tropospheric amplification of surface warming is a robust feature of model simulations, but it occurs in only one observational data set. Other observations show weak, or even negative, amplification. These results suggest either that different physical mechanisms control amplification processes on monthly and decadal time scales, and models fail to capture such behavior; or (more plausibly) that residual errors in several observational data sets used here affect their representation of long-term trends.",

author = "Santer, {B. D.} and Wigley, {T. M.L.} and C. Mears and Wentz, {F. J.} and Klein, {S. A.} and Seidel, {D. J.} and Taylor, {K. E.} and Thorne, {P. W.} and Wehner, {M. F.} and Gleckler, {P. J.} and Boyle, {J. S.} and Collins, {W. D.} and Dixon, {K. W.} and C. Doutriaux and M. Free and Q. Fu and Hansen, {J. E.} and Jones, {C. S.} and R. Ruedy and Karl, {T. R.} and Lanzante, {J. R.} and Meehl, {C. A.} and V. Ramaswamy and G. Russell and Schmidt, {G. A.}",

note = "Funding Information: The authors are partially supported from the Fondation ARC (SIGNIT201801286), the Fondation pour la Recherche M{\'e}dicale (DIC20161236437) and Amazon Web Services (AWS). Funding Information: ED reports grants and personal fees from Roche Genentech, grants from Servier, grants from Astrazeneca, grants and personal fees from Merck Serono, grants from BMS, grants from MSD, outside the submitted work. NP is CEO and Founder of Therapanacea.",

year = "2005",

month = sep,

day = "2",

doi = "10.1126/science.1114867",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "309",

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Santer, BD, Wigley, TML, Mears, C, Wentz, FJ, Klein, SA, Seidel, DJ, Taylor, KE, Thorne, PW, Wehner, MF, Gleckler, PJ, Boyle, JS, Collins, WD, Dixon, KW, Doutriaux, C, Free, M, Fu, Q, Hansen, JE, Jones, CS, Ruedy, R, Karl, TR, Lanzante, JR, Meehl, CA, Ramaswamy, V, Russell, G & Schmidt, GA 2005, 'Atmospheric science: Amplification of surface temperature trends and variability in the tropical atmosphere', Science, vol. 309, no. 5740, pp. 1551-1556. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1114867

TY - JOUR

T1 - Atmospheric science

T2 - Amplification of surface temperature trends and variability in the tropical atmosphere

AU - Santer, B. D.

AU - Wigley, T. M.L.

AU - Mears, C.

AU - Wentz, F. J.

AU - Klein, S. A.

AU - Seidel, D. J.

AU - Taylor, K. E.

AU - Thorne, P. W.

AU - Wehner, M. F.

AU - Gleckler, P. J.

AU - Boyle, J. S.

AU - Collins, W. D.

AU - Dixon, K. W.

AU - Doutriaux, C.

AU - Free, M.

AU - Fu, Q.

AU - Hansen, J. E.

AU - Jones, C. S.

AU - Ruedy, R.

AU - Karl, T. R.

AU - Lanzante, J. R.

AU - Meehl, C. A.

AU - Ramaswamy, V.

AU - Russell, G.

AU - Schmidt, G. A.

N1 - Funding Information: The authors are partially supported from the Fondation ARC (SIGNIT201801286), the Fondation pour la Recherche Médicale (DIC20161236437) and Amazon Web Services (AWS). Funding Information: ED reports grants and personal fees from Roche Genentech, grants from Servier, grants from Astrazeneca, grants and personal fees from Merck Serono, grants from BMS, grants from MSD, outside the submitted work. NP is CEO and Founder of Therapanacea.

PY - 2005/9/2

Y1 - 2005/9/2

N2 - The month-to-month variability of tropical temperatures is larger in the troposphere than at Earth's surface. This amplification behavior is similar in a range of observations and climate model simulations and is consistent with basic theory. On multidecadal time scales, tropospheric amplification of surface warming is a robust feature of model simulations, but it occurs in only one observational data set. Other observations show weak, or even negative, amplification. These results suggest either that different physical mechanisms control amplification processes on monthly and decadal time scales, and models fail to capture such behavior; or (more plausibly) that residual errors in several observational data sets used here affect their representation of long-term trends.

AB - The month-to-month variability of tropical temperatures is larger in the troposphere than at Earth's surface. This amplification behavior is similar in a range of observations and climate model simulations and is consistent with basic theory. On multidecadal time scales, tropospheric amplification of surface warming is a robust feature of model simulations, but it occurs in only one observational data set. Other observations show weak, or even negative, amplification. These results suggest either that different physical mechanisms control amplification processes on monthly and decadal time scales, and models fail to capture such behavior; or (more plausibly) that residual errors in several observational data sets used here affect their representation of long-term trends.

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U2 - 10.1126/science.1114867

DO - 10.1126/science.1114867

M3 - Article

C2 - 16099951

AN - SCOPUS:24644486491

SN - 0036-8075

VL - 309

SP - 1551

EP - 1556

JO - Science

JF - Science

IS - 5740

ER -

Atmospheric science: Amplification of surface temperature trends and variability in the tropical atmosphere

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