Anticipating critical transitions

Marten Scheffer, Stephen R. Carpenter, Timothy M. Lenton, Jordi Bascompte, William Brock, Vasilis Dakos, Johan Van De Koppel, Ingrid A. Van De Leemput, Simon Asher Levin, Egbert H. Van Nes, Mercedes Pascual, John Vandermeer

Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

865 Scopus citations

Abstract

Tipping points in complex systems may imply risks of unwanted collapse, but also opportunities for positive change. Our capacity to navigate such risks and opportunities can be boosted by combining emerging insights from two unconnected fields of research. One line of work is revealing fundamental architectural features that may cause ecological networks, financial markets, and other complex systems to have tipping points. Another field of research is uncovering generic empirical indicators of the proximity to such critical thresholds. Although sudden shifts in complex systems will inevitably continue to surprise us, work at the crossroads of these emerging fields offers new approaches for anticipating critical transitions.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)344-348
Number of pages5
JournalScience
Volume338
Issue number6105
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 19 2012

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • General

Cite this

Scheffer, M., Carpenter, S. R., Lenton, T. M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W., Dakos, V., Van De Koppel, J., Van De Leemput, I. A., Levin, S. A., Van Nes, E. H., Pascual, M., & Vandermeer, J. (2012). Anticipating critical transitions. Science, 338(6105), 344-348. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1225244