Analyzing Social Distancing and Seasonality of COVID-19 with Mean Field Evolutionary Dynamics

Hao Gao; Wuchen Li; Miao Pan; Zhu Han; H. Vincent Poor

doi:10.1109/GCWkshps50303.2020.9367567

Analyzing Social Distancing and Seasonality of COVID-19 with Mean Field Evolutionary Dynamics

Hao Gao, Wuchen Li, Miao Pan, Zhu Han, H. Vincent Poor

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

3 Scopus citations

Abstract

The outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic since the end of 2019 has been declared as a world health emergency by the World Health organization, which raised the importance of an accurate mathematical epidemiological dynamic model to predict the evolution of COVID-19. Replicator dynamics (RDs) are exclusively applied to many epidemic models, but they fail to satisfy the Nash stationarity and can only describe a unidirectional population flow between different states. In this paper, we proposed mean field evolutionary dynamics (MFEDs), inspired by the optimal transport theory and mean field games on graphs, to model epidemic dynamics. We compare the MFEDs with RDs theoretically. In particular, we also show the efficiency of MFEDs by modeling the evolution of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China. Furthermore, we analyze the effect of one-time social distancing as well as the seasonality of COVID-19 through the post-pandemic period.

Original language	English (US)
Title of host publication	2020 IEEE Globecom Workshops, GC Wkshps 2020 - Proceedings
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
ISBN (Electronic)	9781728173078
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/GCWkshps50303.2020.9367567
State	Published - Dec 2020
Externally published	Yes
Event	2020 IEEE Globecom Workshops, GC Wkshps 2020 - Virtual, Taipei, Taiwan, Province of China Duration: Dec 7 2020 → Dec 11 2020

Publication series

Name	2020 IEEE Globecom Workshops, GC Wkshps 2020 - Proceedings

Conference

Conference	2020 IEEE Globecom Workshops, GC Wkshps 2020
Country/Territory	Taiwan, Province of China
City	Virtual, Taipei
Period	12/7/20 → 12/11/20

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Artificial Intelligence
Computer Networks and Communications
Computer Science Applications
Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition
Hardware and Architecture
Software

Access to Document

10.1109/GCWkshps50303.2020.9367567

Cite this

Gao, H., Li, W., Pan, M., Han, Z., & Poor, H. V. (2020). Analyzing Social Distancing and Seasonality of COVID-19 with Mean Field Evolutionary Dynamics. In 2020 IEEE Globecom Workshops, GC Wkshps 2020 - Proceedings Article 367567 (2020 IEEE Globecom Workshops, GC Wkshps 2020 - Proceedings). Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.. https://doi.org/10.1109/GCWkshps50303.2020.9367567

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title = "Analyzing Social Distancing and Seasonality of COVID-19 with Mean Field Evolutionary Dynamics",

abstract = "The outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic since the end of 2019 has been declared as a world health emergency by the World Health organization, which raised the importance of an accurate mathematical epidemiological dynamic model to predict the evolution of COVID-19. Replicator dynamics (RDs) are exclusively applied to many epidemic models, but they fail to satisfy the Nash stationarity and can only describe a unidirectional population flow between different states. In this paper, we proposed mean field evolutionary dynamics (MFEDs), inspired by the optimal transport theory and mean field games on graphs, to model epidemic dynamics. We compare the MFEDs with RDs theoretically. In particular, we also show the efficiency of MFEDs by modeling the evolution of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China. Furthermore, we analyze the effect of one-time social distancing as well as the seasonality of COVID-19 through the post-pandemic period.",

author = "Hao Gao and Wuchen Li and Miao Pan and Zhu Han and Poor, {H. Vincent}",

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year = "2020",

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doi = "10.1109/GCWkshps50303.2020.9367567",

language = "English (US)",

series = "2020 IEEE Globecom Workshops, GC Wkshps 2020 - Proceedings",

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Gao, H, Li, W, Pan, M, Han, Z & Poor, HV 2020, Analyzing Social Distancing and Seasonality of COVID-19 with Mean Field Evolutionary Dynamics. in 2020 IEEE Globecom Workshops, GC Wkshps 2020 - Proceedings., 367567, 2020 IEEE Globecom Workshops, GC Wkshps 2020 - Proceedings, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2020 IEEE Globecom Workshops, GC Wkshps 2020, Virtual, Taipei, Taiwan, Province of China, 12/7/20. https://doi.org/10.1109/GCWkshps50303.2020.9367567

Analyzing Social Distancing and Seasonality of COVID-19 with Mean Field Evolutionary Dynamics. / Gao, Hao; Li, Wuchen; Pan, Miao et al.
2020 IEEE Globecom Workshops, GC Wkshps 2020 - Proceedings. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2020. 367567 (2020 IEEE Globecom Workshops, GC Wkshps 2020 - Proceedings).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

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Analyzing Social Distancing and Seasonality of COVID-19 with Mean Field Evolutionary Dynamics

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