Analysis of Influenza and RSV dynamics in the community using a 'Local Transmission Zone' approach

Gal Almogy, Lewi Stone, B. Andrei Bernevig, Dana G. Wolf, Marina Dorozko, Allon E. Moses, Ran Nir-Paz

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Understanding the dynamics of pathogen spread within urban areas is critical for the effective prevention and containment of communicable diseases. At these relatively small geographic scales, short-distance interactions and tightly knit sub-networks dominate the dynamics of pathogen transmission; yet, the effective boundaries of these micro-scale groups are generally not known and often ignored. Using clinical test results from hospital admitted patients we analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of Influenza Like Illness (ILI) in the city of Jerusalem over a period of three winter seasons. We demonstrate that this urban area is not a single, perfectly mixed ecology, but is in fact comprised of a set of more basic, relatively independent pathogen transmission units, which we term here Local Transmission Zones, LTZs. By identifying these LTZs, and using the dynamic pathogen-content information contained within them, we are able to differentiate between disease-causes at the individual patient level often with near-perfect predictive accuracy.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number42012
JournalScientific reports
Volume7
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 9 2017

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • General

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