Analyses Through the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution Identify Contributions of Tropical Cyclones to Rainfall Extremes in the Eastern United States

Arianna Miniussi, Gabriele Villarini, Marco Marani

Research output: Contribution to journalLetterpeer-review

25 Scopus citations

Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TCs) generate extreme precipitation with severe impacts across large coastal and inland areas, calling for accurate frequency estimation methods. Statistical approaches that take into account the physical mechanisms responsible for these extremes can help reduce the estimation uncertainty. Here we formulate a mixed-population Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution explicitly incorporating non-TC and TC-induced rainfall and evaluate its implications on long series of daily rainfall for six major U.S. urban areas impacted by these storms. We find statistically significant differences between the distributions of TC- and non-TC-related precipitation; moreover, including mixtures of distributions improves the estimation of the probability of extreme precipitation where TCs occur more frequently. These improvements are greater when rainfall aggregated over durations longer than one day are considered.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere2020GL087238
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume47
Issue number7
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 16 2020
Externally publishedYes

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Geophysics
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

Keywords

  • Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution
  • Mixed distributions
  • Rainfall extremes
  • Tropical Cyclones
  • Tropical Cyclones rainfall

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