An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China

Huaiyu Tian; Yonghong Liu; Yidan Li; Chieh Hsi Wu; Bin Chen; Moritz U.G. Kraemer; Bingying Li; Jun Cai; Bo Xu; Qiqi Yang; Ben Wang; Peng Yang; Yujun Cui; Yimeng Song; Pai Zheng; Quanyi Wang; Ottar N. Bjornstad; Ruifu Yang; Bryan T. Grenfell; Oliver G. Pybus; Christopher Dye

doi:10.1126/science.abb6105

An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China

Huaiyu Tian, Yonghong Liu, Yidan Li, Chieh Hsi Wu, Bin Chen, Moritz U.G. Kraemer, Bingying Li, Jun Cai, Bo Xu, Qiqi Yang, Ben Wang, Peng Yang, Yujun Cui, Yimeng Song, Pai Zheng, Quanyi Wang, Ottar N. Bjornstad, Ruifu Yang, Bryan T. Grenfell, Oliver G. PybusChristopher Dye

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

1347 Scopus citations

Abstract

Responding to an outbreak of a novel coronavirus [agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)] in December 2019, China banned travel to and from Wuhan city on 23 January 2020 and implemented a national emergency response. We investigated the spread and control of COVID-19 using a data set that included case reports, human movement, and public health interventions. The Wuhan shutdown was associated with the delayed arrival of COVID-19 in other cities by 2.91 days. Cities that implemented control measures preemptively reported fewer cases on average (13.0) in the first week of their outbreaks compared with cities that started control later (20.6). Suspending intracity public transport, closing entertainment venues, and banning public gatherings were associated with reductions in case incidence. The national emergency response appears to have delayed the growth and limited the size of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, averting hundreds of thousands of cases by 19 February (day 50).

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	638-642
Number of pages	5
Journal	Science
Volume	368
Issue number	6491
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abb6105
State	Published - May 8 2020

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

General

Access to Document

10.1126/science.abb6105

Cite this

Tian, H., Liu, Y., Li, Y., Wu, C. H., Chen, B., Kraemer, M. U. G., Li, B., Cai, J., Xu, B., Yang, Q., Wang, B., Yang, P., Cui, Y., Song, Y., Zheng, P., Wang, Q., Bjornstad, O. N., Yang, R., Grenfell, B. T., ... Dye, C. (2020). An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China. Science, 368(6491), 638-642. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abb6105

@article{0505d413e8d54ea4b50cbb3193398246,

title = "An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China",

abstract = "Responding to an outbreak of a novel coronavirus [agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)] in December 2019, China banned travel to and from Wuhan city on 23 January 2020 and implemented a national emergency response. We investigated the spread and control of COVID-19 using a data set that included case reports, human movement, and public health interventions. The Wuhan shutdown was associated with the delayed arrival of COVID-19 in other cities by 2.91 days. Cities that implemented control measures preemptively reported fewer cases on average (13.0) in the first week of their outbreaks compared with cities that started control later (20.6). Suspending intracity public transport, closing entertainment venues, and banning public gatherings were associated with reductions in case incidence. The national emergency response appears to have delayed the growth and limited the size of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, averting hundreds of thousands of cases by 19 February (day 50).",

author = "Huaiyu Tian and Yonghong Liu and Yidan Li and Wu, {Chieh Hsi} and Bin Chen and Kraemer, {Moritz U.G.} and Bingying Li and Jun Cai and Bo Xu and Qiqi Yang and Ben Wang and Peng Yang and Yujun Cui and Yimeng Song and Pai Zheng and Quanyi Wang and Bjornstad, {Ottar N.} and Ruifu Yang and Grenfell, {Bryan T.} and Pybus, {Oliver G.} and Christopher Dye",

note = "Publisher Copyright: Copyright {\textcopyright} 2020 The Authors,",

year = "2020",

month = may,

day = "8",

doi = "10.1126/science.abb6105",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "368",

pages = "638--642",

journal = "Science",

issn = "0036-8075",

publisher = "American Association for the Advancement of Science",

number = "6491",

}

Tian, H, Liu, Y, Li, Y, Wu, CH, Chen, B, Kraemer, MUG, Li, B, Cai, J, Xu, B, Yang, Q, Wang, B, Yang, P, Cui, Y, Song, Y, Zheng, P, Wang, Q, Bjornstad, ON, Yang, R, Grenfell, BT, Pybus, OG & Dye, C 2020, 'An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China', Science, vol. 368, no. 6491, pp. 638-642. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abb6105

TY - JOUR

T1 - An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China

AU - Tian, Huaiyu

AU - Liu, Yonghong

AU - Li, Yidan

AU - Wu, Chieh Hsi

AU - Chen, Bin

AU - Kraemer, Moritz U.G.

AU - Li, Bingying

AU - Cai, Jun

AU - Xu, Bo

AU - Yang, Qiqi

AU - Wang, Ben

AU - Yang, Peng

AU - Cui, Yujun

AU - Song, Yimeng

AU - Zheng, Pai

AU - Wang, Quanyi

AU - Bjornstad, Ottar N.

AU - Yang, Ruifu

AU - Grenfell, Bryan T.

AU - Pybus, Oliver G.

AU - Dye, Christopher

PY - 2020/5/8

Y1 - 2020/5/8

N2 - Responding to an outbreak of a novel coronavirus [agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)] in December 2019, China banned travel to and from Wuhan city on 23 January 2020 and implemented a national emergency response. We investigated the spread and control of COVID-19 using a data set that included case reports, human movement, and public health interventions. The Wuhan shutdown was associated with the delayed arrival of COVID-19 in other cities by 2.91 days. Cities that implemented control measures preemptively reported fewer cases on average (13.0) in the first week of their outbreaks compared with cities that started control later (20.6). Suspending intracity public transport, closing entertainment venues, and banning public gatherings were associated with reductions in case incidence. The national emergency response appears to have delayed the growth and limited the size of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, averting hundreds of thousands of cases by 19 February (day 50).

AB - Responding to an outbreak of a novel coronavirus [agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)] in December 2019, China banned travel to and from Wuhan city on 23 January 2020 and implemented a national emergency response. We investigated the spread and control of COVID-19 using a data set that included case reports, human movement, and public health interventions. The Wuhan shutdown was associated with the delayed arrival of COVID-19 in other cities by 2.91 days. Cities that implemented control measures preemptively reported fewer cases on average (13.0) in the first week of their outbreaks compared with cities that started control later (20.6). Suspending intracity public transport, closing entertainment venues, and banning public gatherings were associated with reductions in case incidence. The national emergency response appears to have delayed the growth and limited the size of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, averting hundreds of thousands of cases by 19 February (day 50).

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85083004236&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85083004236&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1126/science.abb6105

DO - 10.1126/science.abb6105

M3 - Article

C2 - 32234804

AN - SCOPUS:85083004236

SN - 0036-8075

VL - 368

SP - 638

EP - 642

JO - Science

JF - Science

IS - 6491

ER -

An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China

Abstract

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this