An asymmetric rainfall response to ENSO in East Asia

This study explores the impact of El Niño and La Niña events on precipitation and circulation in East Asia. The results are based on statistical analysis of various observational datasets and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s (GFDL’s) global climate model experiments. Multiple observational datasets and certain models show that in the southeastern coast of China, precipitation exhibits a nonlinear response to Central Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies during boreal deep fall/early winter. Higher mean rainfall is observed during both El Niño and La Niña events compared to the ENSO-Neutral phase, by an amount of approximately 0.4–0.5 mm/day on average per ^o C change. We argue that, in October to December, while the precipitation increases during El Niño are the result of anomalous onshore moisture fluxes, those during La Niña are driven by the persistence of terrestrial moisture anomalies resulting from earlier excess rainfall in this region. This is consistent with the nonlinear extreme rainfall behavior in coastal southeastern China, which increases during both ENSO phases and becomes more severe during El Niño than La Niña events.