Aggregating disparate estimates of chance

Daniel Osherson; Moshe Y. Vardi

doi:10.1016/j.geb.2006.04.001

Aggregating disparate estimates of chance

Daniel Osherson
, Moshe Y. Vardi

Psychology

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

42 Scopus citations

Abstract

We consider a panel of experts asked to assign probabilities to events, both logically simple and complex. The events evaluated by different experts are based on overlapping sets of variables but may otherwise be distinct. The union of all the judgments will likely be probabilistically incoherent. We address the problem of revising the probability estimates of the panel so as to produce a coherent set that best represents the group's expertise.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	148-173
Number of pages	26
Journal	Games and Economic Behavior
Volume	56
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2006.04.001
State	Published - Jul 2006

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Finance
Economics and Econometrics

Keywords

Aggregation
Coherence
Forecasting
Probability

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10.1016/j.geb.2006.04.001

Cite this

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abstract = "We consider a panel of experts asked to assign probabilities to events, both logically simple and complex. The events evaluated by different experts are based on overlapping sets of variables but may otherwise be distinct. The union of all the judgments will likely be probabilistically incoherent. We address the problem of revising the probability estimates of the panel so as to produce a coherent set that best represents the group's expertise.",

keywords = "Aggregation, Coherence, Forecasting, Probability",

author = "Daniel Osherson and Vardi, \{Moshe Y.\}",

note = "Funding Information: We thank three referees of an earlier version of this paper for insightful comments. The research reported herein was supported by NSF grant IIS-9978135. Work on this project was carried out while Osherson was at Rice University.",

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AU - Osherson, Daniel

AU - Vardi, Moshe Y.

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Y1 - 2006/7

N2 - We consider a panel of experts asked to assign probabilities to events, both logically simple and complex. The events evaluated by different experts are based on overlapping sets of variables but may otherwise be distinct. The union of all the judgments will likely be probabilistically incoherent. We address the problem of revising the probability estimates of the panel so as to produce a coherent set that best represents the group's expertise.

AB - We consider a panel of experts asked to assign probabilities to events, both logically simple and complex. The events evaluated by different experts are based on overlapping sets of variables but may otherwise be distinct. The union of all the judgments will likely be probabilistically incoherent. We address the problem of revising the probability estimates of the panel so as to produce a coherent set that best represents the group's expertise.

KW - Aggregation

KW - Coherence

KW - Forecasting

KW - Probability

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/33646868448

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/33646868448#tab=citedBy

U2 - 10.1016/j.geb.2006.04.001

DO - 10.1016/j.geb.2006.04.001

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:33646868448

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VL - 56

SP - 148

EP - 173

JO - Games and Economic Behavior

JF - Games and Economic Behavior

IS - 1

ER -

Aggregating disparate estimates of chance

Abstract

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Keywords

Access to Document

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