Aggregating disparate estimates of chance

Daniel Osherson, Moshe Y. Vardi

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

33 Scopus citations

Abstract

We consider a panel of experts asked to assign probabilities to events, both logically simple and complex. The events evaluated by different experts are based on overlapping sets of variables but may otherwise be distinct. The union of all the judgments will likely be probabilistically incoherent. We address the problem of revising the probability estimates of the panel so as to produce a coherent set that best represents the group's expertise.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)148-173
Number of pages26
JournalGames and Economic Behavior
Volume56
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 2006

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Finance
  • Economics and Econometrics

Keywords

  • Aggregation
  • Coherence
  • Forecasting
  • Probability

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