TY - JOUR
T1 - A tale of two time scales
T2 - Determining integrated volatility with noisy high-frequency data
AU - Zhang, Lan
AU - Mykland, Per A.
AU - Aït-Sahalia, Yacine
N1 - Funding Information:
Lan Zhang is Assistant Professor, Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (E-mail: [email protected]). Per A. Mykland is Professor, Department of Statistics, The University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637 (E-mail: [email protected]). Yacine Aït-Sahalia is Professor, Department of Economics and Bendheim Center for Finance, Princeton University and NBER, Princeton, NJ 08544 (E-mail: [email protected]). This research was supported by National Science Foundation grants DMS-02-04639 (Zhang and Mykland) and SBR-0111140 (Aït-Sahalia). The authors are grateful for comments received at the IMS New Researchers’ Conference at UC Davis (July 2003), the Joint Statistical Meetings in San Francisco (August 2003) and the CIRANO Conference on Realized Volatility in Montréal (November 2003). They also thank Peter Hansen for interesting discussions and the referees for their feedback and suggestions.
PY - 2005/12
Y1 - 2005/12
N2 - It is a common practice in finance to estimate volatility from the sum of frequently sampled squared returns. However, market microstructure poses challenges to this estimation approach, as evidenced by recent empirical studies in finance. The present work attempts to lay out theoretical grounds that reconcile continuous-time modeling and discrete-time samples. We propose an estimation approach that takes advantage of the rich sources in tick-by-tick data while preserving the continuous-time assumption on the underlying returns. Under our framework, it becomes clear why and where the "usual" volatility estimator fails when the returns are sampled at the highest frequencies. If the noise is asymptotically small, our work provides a way of finding the optimal sampling frequency. A better approach, the "two-scales estimator," works for any size of the noise.
AB - It is a common practice in finance to estimate volatility from the sum of frequently sampled squared returns. However, market microstructure poses challenges to this estimation approach, as evidenced by recent empirical studies in finance. The present work attempts to lay out theoretical grounds that reconcile continuous-time modeling and discrete-time samples. We propose an estimation approach that takes advantage of the rich sources in tick-by-tick data while preserving the continuous-time assumption on the underlying returns. Under our framework, it becomes clear why and where the "usual" volatility estimator fails when the returns are sampled at the highest frequencies. If the noise is asymptotically small, our work provides a way of finding the optimal sampling frequency. A better approach, the "two-scales estimator," works for any size of the noise.
KW - Bias-correction
KW - Market microstructure
KW - Martingale
KW - Measurement error
KW - Realized volatility
KW - Subsampling
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U2 - 10.1198/016214505000000169
DO - 10.1198/016214505000000169
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:29144451478
SN - 0162-1459
VL - 100
SP - 1394
EP - 1411
JO - Journal of the American Statistical Association
JF - Journal of the American Statistical Association
IS - 472
ER -