TY - JOUR
T1 - A stochastic programming approach for clinical trial planning in new drug development
AU - Colvin, Matthew
AU - Maravelias, Christos T.
N1 - Funding Information:
The authors would like to acknowledge financial support from the National Science Foundation under Grant CTS-0547443.
Copyright:
Copyright 2008 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2008/11/24
Y1 - 2008/11/24
N2 - The paper presents a multi-stage stochastic programming formulation for the planning of clinical trials in the pharmaceutical research and development (R&D) pipeline. Scenarios are used to account for the endogenous uncertainty in clinical trial outcomes. Given a portfolio of potential drugs and limited resources, the model determines the trials to be performed in each planning period and scenario. To reduce the size of the formulation we employ a reduced set of scenarios without compromising the quality of uncertainty representation. Furthermore, we present a number of ideas that allow us to reduce the number of non-anticipativity constraints necessary to model indistinguishable scenarios. The proposed approach is the first stochastic programming formulation to address this problem.
AB - The paper presents a multi-stage stochastic programming formulation for the planning of clinical trials in the pharmaceutical research and development (R&D) pipeline. Scenarios are used to account for the endogenous uncertainty in clinical trial outcomes. Given a portfolio of potential drugs and limited resources, the model determines the trials to be performed in each planning period and scenario. To reduce the size of the formulation we employ a reduced set of scenarios without compromising the quality of uncertainty representation. Furthermore, we present a number of ideas that allow us to reduce the number of non-anticipativity constraints necessary to model indistinguishable scenarios. The proposed approach is the first stochastic programming formulation to address this problem.
KW - Mixed-integer programming
KW - Optimization under uncertainty
KW - Pharmaceutical research and development
KW - Stochastic programming
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=45149113095&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=45149113095&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.compchemeng.2007.11.010
DO - 10.1016/j.compchemeng.2007.11.010
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:45149113095
SN - 0098-1354
VL - 32
SP - 2626
EP - 2642
JO - Computers and Chemical Engineering
JF - Computers and Chemical Engineering
IS - 11
ER -