A source of Bayesian priors

Daniel Osherson, Edward E. Smith, Eldar Shafir, Antoine Gualtierotti, Kevin Biolsi

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

7 Scopus citations


Establishing reasonable, prior distributions remains a significant obstacle for the construction of probabilistic expert systems. Human assessment of chance is often relied upon for this purpose, but this has the drawback of being inconsistent with axioms of probability. This article advances a method for extracting a coherent distribution of probability from human judgment. The method is based on a psychological model of probabilistic reasoning, followed by a correction phase using linear programming.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)377-405
Number of pages29
JournalCognitive science
Issue number3
StatePublished - 1995

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Experimental and Cognitive Psychology
  • Cognitive Neuroscience
  • Artificial Intelligence


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