A simple model for complex dynamical transitions in epidemics

David J.D. Earn, Pejman Rohani, Benjamin M. Bolker, Bryan T. Grenfell

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

451 Scopus citations

Abstract

Dramatic changes in patterns of epidemics have been observed throughout this century. For childhood infectious diseases such as measles, the major transitions are between regular cycles and irregular, possibly chaotic epidemics, and from regionally synchronized oscillations to complex, spatially incoherent epidemics. A simple model can explain both kinds of transitions as the consequences of changes in birth and vaccination rates. Measles is a natural ecological system that exhibits different dynamical transitions at different times and places, yet all of these transitions can be predicted as bifurcations of a single nonlinear model.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)667-670
Number of pages4
JournalScience
Volume287
Issue number5453
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 28 2000
Externally publishedYes

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • General

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