A search for human influences on the thermal structure of the atmosphere

B. D. Santer, K. E. Taylor, T. M.L. Wigley, T. C. Johns, P. D. Jones, D. J. Karoly, J. F.B. Mitchell, A. H. Oort, J. E. Penner, V. Ramaswamy, M. D. Schwarzkopf, R. J. Stouffer, S. Tett

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Abstract

The observed spatial patterns of temperature change in the free atmosphere from 1963 to 1987 are similar to those predicted by state-of-the- art climate models incorporating various combinations of changes in carbon dioxide, anthropogenic sulphate aerosol and stratospheric ozone concentrations. The degree of pattern similarity between models and observations increases through this period. It is likely that this trend is partially due to human activities, although many uncertainties remain, particularly relating to estimates of natural variability.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)39-46
Number of pages8
JournalNature
Volume382
Issue number6586
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 4 1996

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • General

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    Santer, B. D., Taylor, K. E., Wigley, T. M. L., Johns, T. C., Jones, P. D., Karoly, D. J., Mitchell, J. F. B., Oort, A. H., Penner, J. E., Ramaswamy, V., Schwarzkopf, M. D., Stouffer, R. J., & Tett, S. (1996). A search for human influences on the thermal structure of the atmosphere. Nature, 382(6586), 39-46. https://doi.org/10.1038/382039a0