A methodology to estimate maximum probable leakage along old wells in a geological sequestration operation

Juan P. Nogues, Benjamin Court, Mark Dobossy, Jan M. Nordbotten, Michael Anthony Celia

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

37 Scopus citations

Abstract

This study presents a computational methodology to estimate the maximum probable leakage of CO 2 along old wells in a geological sequestration operation. The methodology quantifies the maximum probable CO 2 leakage as a function of the statistical characterization of existing wells. We use a Monte Carlo approach based on a computationally efficient simulator to run many thousands of realizations. Results from the Monte Carlo simulations are used to determine maximum leakage rates at 95% confidence. Uncertainty in the analysis is due to leaky well parameters, which are known to be highly uncertain. We consider a wide range of parameter values, with our focus on assignment of effective well permeability values and the correlation of those values along individual wells. We use a specific location in Alberta, Canada, to demonstrate the methodology using a hypothetical injection and an assumed probability structure for the well permeabilities. We show that for a wide range of parameter values, the amount of leakage is within the bounds suggested as acceptable for climate change mitigation.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)39-47
Number of pages9
JournalInternational Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control
Volume7
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 1 2012

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Pollution
  • Energy(all)
  • Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering
  • Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law

Keywords

  • CO leakage along wells
  • Carbon capture and storage
  • Geological sequestration
  • Risk assessment
  • Semi-analytical models for CO

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