TY - JOUR
T1 - A high-resolution emission inventory for eastern China in 2000 and three scenarios for 2020
AU - Wang, Xiaoping
AU - Mauzerall, Denise Leonore
AU - Hu, Yongtao
AU - Russell, Armistead G.
AU - Larson, Eric David
AU - Woo, Jung Hun
AU - Streets, David G.
AU - Guenther, Alex
N1 - Funding Information:
We thank Michael Oppenheimer, Robert Williams and two anonymous reviewers for comments on an earlier version of the manuscript. We also thank Jing Xu of Peking University, China for assistance in compiling relevant government statistics and Larry Horowitz and Quansong Tong for assistance in developing the MOZART-2 boundary conditions. We are pleased to acknowledge financial support from the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs and the Center for Health and Wellbeing both at Princeton University.
PY - 2005/10
Y1 - 2005/10
N2 - We develop a source-specific high-resolution emission inventory for the Shandong region of eastern China for 2000 and 2020. Our emission estimates for year 2000 are higher than other studies for most pollutants, due to our inclusion of rural coal consumption, which is significant but often underestimated. Still, our inventory evaluation suggests that we likely underestimate actual emissions. We project that emissions will increase greatly from 2000 to 2020 if no additional emission controls are implemented. As a result, PM2.5 concentrations will increase; however O3 concentrations will decrease in most areas due to increased NOx emissions and VOC-limited O3 chemistry. Taking Zaozhuang Municipality in this region as a case study, we examine possible changes in emissions in 2020 given projected growth in energy consumption with no additional controls utilized (BAU), with adoption of best available end-of-pipe controls (BACT), and with advanced, low-emission coal gasification technologies (ACGT) which are capable of gasifying the high-sulfur coal that is abundant in China. Emissions of NH3 are projected to be 20% higher, NMVOC 50% higher, and all other species 130-250% higher in 2020 BAU than in 2000. Both alternative 2020 emission scenarios would reduce emissions relative to BAU. Adoption of ACGT, which meets only 24% of energy service demand in Zaozhuang in 2020 would reduce emissions more than BACT with 100% penetration. In addition, coal gasification technologies create an opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by capturing and sequestering CO2 emissions below ground.
AB - We develop a source-specific high-resolution emission inventory for the Shandong region of eastern China for 2000 and 2020. Our emission estimates for year 2000 are higher than other studies for most pollutants, due to our inclusion of rural coal consumption, which is significant but often underestimated. Still, our inventory evaluation suggests that we likely underestimate actual emissions. We project that emissions will increase greatly from 2000 to 2020 if no additional emission controls are implemented. As a result, PM2.5 concentrations will increase; however O3 concentrations will decrease in most areas due to increased NOx emissions and VOC-limited O3 chemistry. Taking Zaozhuang Municipality in this region as a case study, we examine possible changes in emissions in 2020 given projected growth in energy consumption with no additional controls utilized (BAU), with adoption of best available end-of-pipe controls (BACT), and with advanced, low-emission coal gasification technologies (ACGT) which are capable of gasifying the high-sulfur coal that is abundant in China. Emissions of NH3 are projected to be 20% higher, NMVOC 50% higher, and all other species 130-250% higher in 2020 BAU than in 2000. Both alternative 2020 emission scenarios would reduce emissions relative to BAU. Adoption of ACGT, which meets only 24% of energy service demand in Zaozhuang in 2020 would reduce emissions more than BACT with 100% penetration. In addition, coal gasification technologies create an opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by capturing and sequestering CO2 emissions below ground.
KW - Air pollution
KW - CO
KW - Coal
KW - Energy technology
KW - Particulate matter
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U2 - 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2005.06.051
DO - 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2005.06.051
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:24644480616
SN - 1352-2310
VL - 39
SP - 5917
EP - 5933
JO - Atmospheric Environment
JF - Atmospheric Environment
IS - 32
ER -