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1981 …2020

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Article
2020

Accelerated viral dynamics in bat cell lines, with implications for zoonotic emergence

Brook, C. E., Boots, M., Chandran, K., Dobson, A. P., Drosten, C., Graham, A. L., Grenfell, B. T., Müller, M. A., Ng, M., Wang, L. F. & Leeuwen, A. V., Feb 2020, In : eLife. 9, e48401.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
19 Scopus citations

A competing-risks model explains hierarchical spatial coupling of measles epidemics en route to national elimination

Lau, M. S. Y., Becker, A. D., Korevaar, H. M., Caudron, Q., Shaw, D. J., Metcalf, C. J. E., Bjørnstad, O. N. & Grenfell, B. T., Jul 1 2020, In : Nature Ecology and Evolution. 4, 7, p. 934-939 6 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
3 Scopus citations

A global lmmunological observatory to meet a time of pandemics

Mina, M. J., Metcalf, C. J. E., McDermott, A. B., Douek, D. C., Farrar, J. & Grenfell, B. T., 2020, In : eLife. 9, p. 1-5 5 p., e58989.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
1 Scopus citations

An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China

Tian, H., Liu, Y., Li, Y., Wu, C. H., Chen, B., Kraemer, M. U. G., Li, B., Cai, J., Xu, B., Yang, Q., Wang, B., Yang, P., Cui, Y., Song, Y., Zheng, P., Wang, Q., Bjornstad, O. N., Yang, R., Grenfell, B. T., Pybus, O. G. & 1 others, Dye, C., May 8 2020, In : Science. 368, 6491, p. 638-642 5 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
126 Scopus citations

Changes in historical typhoid transmission across 16 u.S. cities, 1889-1931: Quantifying the impact of investments in water and sewer infrastructures

Phillips, M. T., Owers, K. A., Grenfell, B. T. & Pitzer, V. E., Mar 2020, In : PLoS neglected tropical diseases. 14, 3, e0008048.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access

Characterizing superspreading events and age-specific infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Georgia, USA

Lau, M. S. Y., Grenfell, B., Thomas, M., Bryan, M., Nelson, K. & Lopman, B., Sep 8 2020, In : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 117, 36, p. 22430-22435 6 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access

Climatological, virological and sociological drivers of current and projected dengue fever outbreak dynamics in Sri Lanka

Wagner, C. E., Hooshyar, M., Baker, R. E., Yang, W., Arinaminpathy, N., Vecchi, G., Metcalf, C. J. E., Porporato, A. & Grenfell, B. T., Jun 1 2020, In : Journal of the Royal Society, Interface. 17, 167, p. 20200075 1 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access

Coexisting attractors in the context of cross-scale population dynamics: Measles in London as a case study

Becker, A. D., Zhou, S. H., Wesolowski, A. & Grenfell, B. T., Apr 29 2020, In : Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 287, 1925, 20191510.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access

Disease and healthcare burden of COVID-19 in the United States

Miller, I. F., Becker, A. D., Grenfell, B. T. & Metcalf, C. J. E., Aug 1 2020, In : Nature Medicine. 26, 8, p. 1212-1217 6 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
3 Scopus citations
1 Scopus citations

Factors Associated with Measles Transmission in the United States during the Postelimination Era

Gastañaduy, P. A., Funk, S., Lopman, B. A., Rota, P. A., Gambhir, M., Grenfell, B. & Paul, P., Jan 2020, In : JAMA Pediatrics. 174, 1, p. 56-62 7 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
1 Scopus citations
Open Access

Population implications of the deployment of novel universal vaccines against epidemic and pandemic influenza

Arinaminpathy, N., Riley, S., Barclay, W. S., Saad-Roy, C. & Grenfell, B., Mar 1 2020, In : Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 17, 164, 20190879.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access

Potential role of social distancing in mitigating spread of coronavirus disease, South Korea

Park, S. W., Sun, K., Viboud, C., Grenfell, B. T. & Dushoff, J., Nov 2020, In : Emerging Infectious Diseases. 26, 11

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access

Reconciling early-outbreak estimates of the basic reproductive number and its uncertainty: framework and applications to the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak

Park, S. W., Bolker, B. M., Champredon, D., Earn, D. J. D., Li, M., Weitz, J. S., Grenfell, B. T. & Dushoff, J., Jul 1 2020, In : Journal of the Royal Society, Interface. 17, 168, p. 20200144 1 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access

Surveillance data confirm multiyear predictions of rotavirus dynamics in New York City

Olson, D. R., Lopman, B. A., Konty, K. J., Mathes, R. W., Papadouka, V., Ternier, A., Zucker, J. R., Simonsen, L., Grenfell, B. T. & Pitzer, V. E., 2020, In : Science Advances. 6, 9, eaax0586.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access

Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

Baker, R. E., Yang, W., Vecchi, G. A., Metcalf, C. J. E. & Grenfell, B. T., Jul 17 2020, In : Science. 369, 6501, p. 315-319 5 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
13 Scopus citations

Symbolic transfer entropy reveals the age structure of pandemic influenza transmission from high-volume influenza-like illness data

Kissler, S. M., Viboud, C., Grenfell, B. T. & Gog, J. R., Mar 1 2020, In : Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 17, 164, 20190628.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
1 Scopus citations

Tensor decomposition for infectious disease incidence data

Korevaar, H., Metcalf, C. J. & Grenfell, B. T., 2020, (Accepted/In press) In : Methods in Ecology and Evolution.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access

The use of mobile phone data to inform analysis of COVID-19 pandemic epidemiology

Grantz, K. H., Meredith, H. R., Cummings, D. A. T., Metcalf, C. J. E., Grenfell, B. T., Giles, J. R., Mehta, S., Solomon, S., Labrique, A., Kishore, N., Buckee, C. O. & Wesolowski, A., Dec 1 2020, In : Nature communications. 11, 1, 4961.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
2019

Epidemic dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus in current and future climates

Baker, R. E., Mahmud, A. S., Wagner, C. E., Yang, W., Pitzer, V. E., Viboud, C., Vecchi, G. A., Metcalf, C. J. E. & Grenfell, B. T., Dec 1 2019, In : Nature communications. 10, 1, 5512.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
5 Scopus citations

Geographic transmission hubs of the 2009 influenza pandemic in the United States

Kissler, S. M., Gog, J. R., Viboud, C., Charu, V., Bjørnstad, O. N., Simonsen, L. & Grenfell, B. T., Mar 2019, In : Epidemics. 26, p. 86-94 9 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
7 Scopus citations

Incentivizing hospital infection control

Drohan, S. E., Levin, S. A., Grenfell, B. T. & Laxminarayan, R., 2019, In : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 116, 13, p. 6221-6225 5 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
3 Scopus citations

Long-term dynamics of measles in London: Titrating the impact of wars, the 1918 pandemic, and vaccination

Becker, A. D., Wesolowski, A., Bjørnstad, O. N. & Grenfell, B. T., 2019, In : PLoS computational biology. 15, 9, e1007305.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
2 Scopus citations

Measles and the canonical path to elimination

Graham, M., Winter, A. K., Ferrari, M., Grenfell, B., Moss, W. J., Azman, A. S., Metcalf, C. J. E. & Lessler, J., Jan 1 2019, In : Science. 364, 6440, p. 584-587 4 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
9 Scopus citations

Model diagnostics and refinement for phylodynamic models

Lau, M. S. Y., Grenfell, B. T., Worby, C. J. & Gibson, G. J., 2019, In : PLoS computational biology. 15, 4, e1006955.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access

Pareto rules for malaria super-spreaders and super-spreading

Cooper, L., Kang, S. Y., Bisanzio, D., Maxwell, K., Rodriguez-Barraquer, I., Greenhouse, B., Drakeley, C., Arinaitwe, E., G. Staedke, S., Gething, P. W., Eckhoff, P., Reiner, R. C., Hay, S. I., Dorsey, G., Kamya, M. R., Lindsay, S. W., Grenfell, B. T. & Smith, D. L., Dec 1 2019, In : Nature communications. 10, 1, 3939.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
2 Scopus citations
2018

Analysis of multi-level spatial data reveals strong synchrony in seasonal influenza epidemics across Norway, Sweden, and Denmark

Morris, S. E., Freiesleben de Blasio, B., Viboud, C., Wesolowski, A., Bjørnstad, O. N. & Grenfell, B. T., May 2018, In : PloS one. 13, 5, e0197519.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
2 Scopus citations

Deploying digital health data to optimize influenza surveillance at national and local scales

Lee, E. C., Arab, A., Goldlust, S. M., Viboud, C., Grenfell, B. T. & Bansal, S., Mar 2018, In : PLoS computational biology. 14, 3, e1006020.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
8 Scopus citations

Epidemic dynamics, interactions and predictability of enteroviruses associated with hand, foot and mouth disease in Japan

Takahashi, S., Jessica E Metcalf, E. M., Arima, Y., Fujimoto, T., Shimizu, H., Rogier Van Doorn, H., Le Van, T., Chan, Y. F., Farrar, J. J., Oishi, K. & Grenfell, B. T., 2018, In : Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 15, 146, 0006.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
10 Scopus citations

Impact and longevity of measles-associated immune suppression: A matched cohort study using data from the THIN general practice database in the UK

Gadroen, K., Dodd, C. N., Masclee, G. M. C., De Ridder, M. A. J., Weibel, D., Mina, M. J., Grenfell, B. T., Sturkenboom, M. C. J. M., Van De Vijver, D. A. M. C. & De Swart, R. L., Nov 1 2018, In : BMJ open. 8, 11, e021465.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
14 Scopus citations

Impact of public health responses during ameasles outbreak in an amish community in Ohio: Modeling the dynamics of transmission

Gastañaduy, P. A., Funk, S., Paul, P., Tatham, L., Fisher, N., Budd, J., Fowler, B., De Fijter, S., DiOrio, M., Wallace, G. S. & Grenfell, B., 2018, In : American Journal of Epidemiology. 187, 9, p. 2002-2010 9 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
11 Scopus citations

Modeling the measles paradox reveals the importance of cellular immunity in regulating viral clearance

Morris, S. E., Yates, A. J., de Swart, R. L., de Vries, R. D., Mina, M. J., Nelson, A. N., Lin, W. H. W., Kouyos, R. D., Griffin, D. E. & Grenfell, B. T., Dec 2018, In : PLoS pathogens. 14, 12, e1007493.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
4 Scopus citations

Rubella vaccination in India: Identifying broad consequences of vaccine introduction and key knowledge gaps

Winter, A. K., Pramanik, S., Lessler, J., Ferrari, M., Grenfell, B. T. & Metcalf, C. J. E., Jan 1 2018, In : Epidemiology and Infection. 146, 1, p. 65-77 13 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
4 Scopus citations

The decline of malaria in Vietnam, 1991-2014

Goldlust, S. M., Thuan, P. D., Giang, D. D. H., Thang, N. D., Thwaites, G. E., Farrar, J., Thanh, N. V., Nguyen, T. D., Grenfell, B. T., Boni, M. F. & Hien, T. T., Jun 7 2018, In : Malaria Journal. 17, 1, 226.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
5 Scopus citations

The seasonality of nonpolio enteroviruses in the United States: Patterns and drivers

Pons-Salort, M., Oberste, M. S., Pallansch, M. A., Abedi, G. R., Takahashi, S., Grenfell, B. T. & Grassly, N. C., Mar 20 2018, In : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 115, 12, p. 3078-3083 6 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
27 Scopus citations

Unreported cases in the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic: Spatiotemporal variation, and implications for estimating transmission

Dalziel, B. D., Lau, M. S. Y., Tiffany, A., McClelland, A., Zelner, J., Bliss, J. R. & Grenfell, B. T., Jan 2018, In : PLoS neglected tropical diseases. 12, 1, e0006161.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
8 Scopus citations

Urbanization and humidity shape the intensity of influenza epidemics in U.S. cities

Dalziel, B. D., Kissler, S., Gog, J. R., Viboud, C., Bjørnstad, O. N., Metcalf, C. J. E. & Grenfell, B. T., Oct 5 2018, In : Science. 362, 6410, p. 75-79 5 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
48 Scopus citations

Vaccination under uncertainty

Lau, M. S. Y. & Grenfell, B. T., Sep 1 2018, In : Nature Ecology and Evolution. 2, 9, p. 1350-1351 2 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2017

A mechanistic spatio-temporal framework for modelling individual-to-individual transmission—With an application to the 2014-2015 West Africa Ebola outbreak

Lau, M. S. Y., Gibson, G. J., Adrakey, H., McClelland, A., Riley, S., Zelner, J., Streftaris, G., Funk, S., Metcalf, J., Dalziel, B. D. & Grenfell, B. T., Oct 2017, In : PLoS computational biology. 13, 10, e1005798.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
5 Scopus citations

Human mobility and the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States

Charu, V., Zeger, S., Gog, J., Bjørnstad, O. N., Kissler, S., Simonsen, L., Grenfell, B. T. & Viboud, C., Feb 2017, In : PLoS computational biology. 13, 2, e1005382.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
44 Scopus citations

Robust extraction of quantitative structural information from high-variance histological images of livers from necropsied soay sheep

Caudron, Q., Garnier, R., Pilkington, J. G., Watt, K. A., Hansen, C., Grenfell, B. T., Aboellail, T. & Graham, A. L., Jul 19 2017, In : Royal Society Open Science. 4, 7, 170111.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Spatial and temporal dynamics of superspreading events in the 2014-2015 West Africa Ebola epidemic

Lau, M. S. Y., Dalziel, B. D., Funk, S., McClelland, A., Tiffany, A., Riley, S., Metcalf, C. J. E. & Grenfell, B. T., Feb 28 2017, In : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 114, 9, p. 2337-2342 6 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
63 Scopus citations

The impact of HCV therapy in a high HIV-HCV prevalence population: A modeling study on people who inject drugs in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Birger, R. B., Le, T., Kouyos, R. D., Grenfell, B. T. & Hallett, T. B., May 2017, In : PloS one. 12, 5, e0177195.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
5 Scopus citations

The impact of migration and antimicrobial resistance on the transmission dynamics of typhoid fever in Kathmandu, Nepal: A mathematical modelling study

Saad, N. J., Bowles, C. C., Grenfell, B. T., Basnyat, B., Arjyal, A., Dongol, S., Karkey, A., Baker, S. & Pitzer, V. E., May 5 2017, In : PLoS neglected tropical diseases. 11, 5, e0005547.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
6 Scopus citations

TSIR: An R package for time-series susceptible-infected-recovered models of epidemics

Becker, A. D. & Grenfell, B. T., Sep 2017, In : PloS one. 12, 9, e0185528.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
5 Scopus citations
2016

Estimating enhanced prevaccination measles transmission hotspots in the context of cross-scale dynamics

Becker, A. D., Birger, R. B., Teillant, A., Gastanaduy, P. A., Wallace, G. S. & Grenfell, B. T., Dec 20 2016, In : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 113, 51, p. 14595-14600 6 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
11 Scopus citations

Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in China: Critical Community Size and Spatial Vaccination Strategies

Van Boeckel, T. P., Takahashi, S., Liao, Q., Xing, W., Lai, S., Hsiao, V., Liu, F., Zheng, Y., Chang, Z., Yuan, C., Metcalf, C. J. E., Yu, H. & Grenfell, B. T., Apr 29 2016, In : Scientific reports. 6, 25248.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
13 Scopus citations